The Beast from the East
Привет мой друг (Hello My Friend)
I'm a meteorologist (weather expert) in Valdemar Putin's Russia, he is known as Vlad the saviour of modern Russia, not to be confused with that nasty Romanian guy Vlad the Impaler.
Your leaders in the west would like you to think of him as the Beast From The East, but he is a nice friendly guy with tidy hair, not like that big mouth Trump.
I'm going to tell you about the real Beast From The East, it's a far greater threat to the UK than that buffoon Boris claims Vlad is.
Where does the Beast From The East come from?
Mother Russia covers all climate zones except tropical ( well not officially ) and 9 time zones. It's land mass of over 17 million Km2 stretches almost halfway around the planet and it has a population of over 140 million people.
Russia is a big country, to fly across it from the capital Moscow in the west to Vladivostok in the East would take 8 hours, the same time it takes to fly from London to New York.
One third of Russia is actually in the Arctic circle, in winter the temperature of those areas averages -30° most of the moisture is frozen so the air there is very dry, this means that if winds blow from my country to the UK they are very cold and dry, if these winds meet your UK wet weather they will turn all your rain to snow.
How this happens is very complicated, so complicated that the most powerful super-computers in the world are used to try and understand and predict the weather.
My 'reliable sources' tell me that in 2017 the bad hair guy, Trump, paid out $258 million to six different companies—Hewlett-Packard, Intel, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Cray, and IBM to help them build a computer powerful enough to try and predict weather accurately, such a computer would be about a trillion times more powerful than your laptop, if you would like to find out more try googling 'exascale computer'.
The IBM Blue Gene Super Computer does 1 trillion calculations per second and still can't predict the weather accuratly
The UK and the Arctic.
The UK is on the same latitude, 50° - 60° N as Russia and Canada ( another very cold country ). The tip of Great Britain ( Dunnet Head ) is less than 550 miles below the Arctic, the Shetland Isles are only 400 miles away and the UK is the northernmost country that does not actually cross the Arctic circle.
Lerwick Sheltand, closer to the Arctic than it is to London
500 meters down, 5 miles off the coast of Shetland lies a massive body of freezing Arctic Water, this is enough for the UK to claim that the Arctic is part of its territorial waters, yet your Government moans about Russia claiming Crimea?
Because of this, your Government sits as a 'constructive observer' on the Arctic Council of the 8 nations who have land masses within the Arctic circle and has a Polar Regions Department.
Our own dear Dr Dmitriy Tulupov of St. Petersburg State University found your Government’s approach ( as outlined in its 2013 policy document ) to the Arctic “balanced and well-thought”. If only they could be like that to dear Vlad as well.
Why doesn't the UK have the same harsh winters as the rest of the Arctic nations?
This is because of the powerful fast moving high altitude air currents called jet streams. The most powerful of these are the polar jet streams, our northern one travels east to west around the planet, it crosses North America, the Atlantic and normally curls up around Europe.
At above 60° latitude there another air current called the Polar Cell or Polar Vortex, this drives cold Arctic air down from arctic Russia across Scandinavia towards the UK, but the polar Jet Stream curling up around Europe pushes the Polar vortex northwards of the UK, so instead of sharing the cold dry Arctic air with rest of the countries at 50° - 60° N, for most of the winter the UK gets the wet mild air blown across the Atlantic.
This is why we get -20°C temperatures and mostly snow in winter and you lucky guys get rain and rarely go below -5°C for more than a few days.
You also have the benefits of warmer seas to the west and North. The North Atlantic Sea Current branches off from the gulf stream bringing warmer water up to and around the UK, this warms the polar seas around the Shetlands and other Scottish islands stopping them from freezing solid in winter.
When it comes to the weather the UK is a very fortunate place, yet you guys complain so much. Maybe try a winter holiday in Siberia and you will begin to appreciate your mild winters more.
How did the Beast from the East Get Here
In early 2018 the polar jet wandered way down below central Europe so allowing the polar vortex to sweep our cold dry Russian air right across the UK. While this may have come as a surprise to the British people it was expected by your Government.
The select committed on the Arctic (Session 2014 -2015 ) reported that:
"Changes in oceanic, atmospheric and cryospheric conditions in the Arctic may lead to further repeats of the very cold winters experienced in 2009 and 2010 and winter flooding of 2013–14, while extreme weather events may be becoming increasingly likely and lasting longer, all with associated costs."
Your Government knew, yet instead of preparing the country they let a few inches of predicted snow and a few days of sub-zero temperatures bring it to its knees, allowing massive disruption to transport, hardship and suffering for its citizens and even death for an unfortunate few.
Maybe you should think on that before having digs at my beloved mother Russias democratically elected legitimate Government (with a 76% majority ). When was the last time the UK had a majority government?
Will the Beast from the East be back?
Possibly. The forecasters have noted the same conditions for 2018 have been repeated for 2019, possibly a little later towards the end of March. But you got lucky and missed it in 2019, don't start dancing with joy yet "it will be back"
I said before that the weather is very complex, one factor that affects these winds is the way polar ice or lack of it as we see now affects temperature.
It has been well documented that the Arctic Ice is vanishing rapidly, the reasons are again complex but the results for us are that sea ice reflects about 50% of the solar radiation it receives back into space, part of that radiation is infra-red rays, what we know as heat radiation.
By contrast, water reflects less than 10%. If you replace ice with water much more solar heat will be absorbed by the ocean, the oceans get warmer, the warm air rises hits the cooler air above causing stronger more violent and unpredictable winds, this effect on the Polar vortex affects the other high altitude currents.
Do you remember hurricane Irma in 2017 ? Think about a cold storm of that ferocity hitting Northern Europe!
Warning science jargon alert:
"One factor that contributes to the creation of a concentrated polar jet is the undercutting of sub-tropical air masses by the denser polar air masses at the polar front. This causes surface low pressure and higher pressure at altitude".
I have no idea what this means either as it's way above my pay grade, but some very clever climate scientists do and what is happening in the Arctic has them deeply worried
In a nutshell, if you think 2018 was bad wait until the beast come back, my own scientists betting pool has the UK equaling the lows of the 1980s, where the temperature regularly fell below -20°C at evens, and a new record of -30°C at 5 to 1.
What would I do?
If I was in the UK I would follow the Home heating shops advice on Surviving the winter, buy winter clothes in the sales when they are cheap and get a couple of extra bottles for my Calor Gas heaters, yes of course we have Calor gas heaters, this is Russia we know about winter and power cuts!
I hope this information helps you, see we Russians are not bad guys, we love everyone and we hoped you enjoyed our staging of the 2018 world cup, we even forgave your governments provocation in dressing Gareth Southgate up as James Bond for the world cup in his fancy waistcoat.
удачи до свидания ( Goodbye for now)